Revised Prediction Raises Hurricane Threat

August 9, 2019

Floridians have a new reason to be concerned about hurricanes this year.

A revised notice by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center indicates that the 2019 hurricane season may have above-normal storm activity.

The agency’s updated outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season advises that an above-normal season has the highest chance of occurring (45%), followed by a 35% chance for near-normal season. This outlook reflects the potential for more activity than was predicted in NOAA’s pre-season outlook.

The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

According to the updated outlook, there is a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity from June 1 through November 30:

  • 10-17 Named Storms
  • 5-9 Hurricanes
  • 2-4 Major Hurricanes

Most of the activity is predicted to occur during the peak months of August through October.

To date, the Atlantic hurricane season has produced two named storms, with Hurricane Barry making landfall in Louisiana in July.

For the remainder of the season, NOAA scientists expect that four to eight storms will become hurricanes and two to four of them will be major hurricanes.

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